Global security analysts are sounding the alarm over Russia’s evolving nuclear strategy, warning that Moscow could justify the use of nuclear weapons if it perceives a critical threat to its sovereignty including that of its ally, Belarus.
Since ordering the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Vladimir Putin has increasingly tested the West’s resolve through aerial and naval provocations near NATO territory. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that Russia “continues to challenge and probe NATO states’ capabilities,” potentially as part of preparations for a future confrontation between Russia and NATO.
In recent months, Russian officials and state propagandists have used alarming rhetoric that hints at the possible use of nuclear arms. Sergei Karaganov, honorary chairman of the Russian Council for Foreign and Defence Policy, said on national television:
“This European contagion must be eradicated. We need to prepare to strike, or at least make them understand that we are ready.”
Although he stopped short of explicitly endorsing a nuclear strike, his comments were followed by remarks from Vladimir Solovyov, a Kremlin propagandist, who suggested that “Oxford and Cambridge could be destroyed” to cripple Britain’s elite. Solovyov and Russian senator Dmitry Rogozin even released a chilling map marking 23 potential bombing targets across Europe.
According to documents from the UK House of Commons Library, Russia possesses the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, with approximately 5,580 warheads, including around 4,380 operational weapons. This vast stockpile includes 1,558 tactical or non-strategic warheads, which are currently not restricted by any international arms control agreements.
A major update to Moscow’s nuclear doctrine now explicitly extends Russia’s nuclear protection to Belarus. Experts note that under the revised policy, nuclear use would be considered justified not only in response to an existential threat but also against conventional aggression that endangers the sovereignty or territorial integrity of Russia or Belarus.
Alarmingly, the doctrine also declares that an attack by any non-nuclear country if supported by a nuclear power would be treated as a joint assault on Russia.
Earlier this week, Major General Paul Tedman, head of the UK’s Space Command, warned that Russia is developing technology capable of placing nuclear weapons in orbit, further escalating global tensions.
Experts have calculated the potential reach of a nuclear blast. Depending on the weapon and weather conditions, the radiation radius could span around 153 km², while the fireball radius might cover 197 km². The air-blast could extend between 321 km² and 1,420 km², and thermal radiation could impact as much as 12,960 km².
In the event of a catastrophic strike, property experts previously identified several areas in the UK that might offer relative safety due to their distance from major targets. These include Cornwall, Weymouth, Aberystwyth, Lancaster, Inverness, and others. However, even these areas could be affected by radiation carried by prevailing winds.
The remote island of Foula, located in the Shetland Isles, is widely believed to be the safest location in the UK should a nuclear exchange ever occur.
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