Since launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly used nuclear threats as a political weapon to intimidate the West and warn against continued support for Kyiv. His rhetoric and military actions have revived Cold War-era fears across Europe, raising concerns about a potential escalation into a broader and more dangerous conflict.
In recent years, Moscow has taken several provocative steps to demonstrate its nuclear strength. Russia has placed parts of its strategic arsenal on high alert, tested and deployed new missile systems, suspended its participation in key nuclear arms treaties, and announced the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus. This move marked the first time since the fall of the Soviet Union that Russia stationed nuclear arms outside its borders.
Although experts generally view the likelihood of a nuclear war as low, new intelligence leaks have deepened anxieties. A classified Russian naval dossier, reportedly obtained by Western sources and published by the Financial Times in August 2024, revealed a list of potential nuclear strike targets in the event of a war with NATO. The leaked cache, which includes 29 secret Russian military files predating the 2022 invasion, outlines 32 possible targets across Europe three of which are located in the United Kingdom.
According to the report, the UK’s prime targets include the Royal Navy submarine shipyard in Barrow-in-Furness, an industrial site near Hull, and an undisclosed location in Edinburgh. Russia’s Northern Fleet would be responsible for these attacks, as well as strikes on military and industrial infrastructure in Norway and Estonia. The documents also suggest that Russia’s Baltic Fleet would focus on targets in Germany and Norway, with other plans identifying potential strikes in Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey. Surprisingly, the files even mention possible operations involving non-European nations such as Iran, Japan, and China if a larger global conflict were to erupt.
Amid these rising tensions, Moscow recently reacted positively to remarks by former U.S. President Donald Trump regarding nuclear arms control. Trump expressed support for extending the New START treaty the last remaining arms reduction agreement between Washington and Moscow. The Kremlin described his comments as “grounds for optimism.” Putin himself warned that allowing the treaty to expire would destabilize global security and increase the risk of nuclear proliferation.
As the war in Ukraine drags on, Putin’s nuclear posturing continues to serve as both a strategic deterrent and a reminder of the fragile balance of power shaping Europe’s future.
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