Ahead of Donald Trump’s second state visit to the UK, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged Trump to take a “clear position” on providing Ukraine with security guarantees. Zelensky stressed that any effective agreement must be backed not only by the United States but also by European partners.
This debate comes at a tense time. Russia has intensified attacks on Ukraine, carried out drone incursions into NATO members Poland and Romania, and continued joint drills with Belarus. While the Kremlin has put peace talks “on pause,” questions remain over whether credible security guarantees can realistically move forward.
Expert views
Dr. Marcin Kaczmarski, a lecturer in Security Studies at the University of Glasgow, believes Europe’s leverage is limited. According to him, leaders like UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer can only attempt to persuade Trump that supporting Ukraine’s security is in Washington’s best interests. However, he cautions that recent Russian provocations, such as drone attacks on Poland and Romania, have not shifted U.S. policy.
Kaczmarski also outlined two potential risks of Russian engagement with the UK. First, routine airspace violations and increased patrols in the North Sea could escalate accidentally. Second, if British troops were deployed to western Ukraine, Moscow would likely avoid direct confrontation but instead operate in the “grey zone” using drones or other deniable attacks. In his view, Russia’s goal would be to test NATO’s credibility and weaken the value of any security guarantees.
He also noted that meaningful guarantees would not necessarily require large troop deployments. A U.S. air force presence in Poland or Ukraine, for example, could serve as powerful political signalling that any Russian escalation would be treated as an attack on NATO.
Beyond military pledges
Wayne Jordash KC, President of Global Rights Compliance, stressed that guarantees should not only focus on troops but also on long-term deterrence. This would include sustained weapons supply, real-time intelligence sharing, and coordinated preparations for possible future Russian aggression.
Ukrainian skepticism
Still, many Ukrainians remain doubtful. Dmytro, co-founder of the volunteer group Druzi Space in Donbas, expressed frustration, calling the discussions “empty talk.” He argued that Western leaders lack the courage to take decisive steps, saying that only firm commitments backed by real action could bring an end to the war.
Takeaway
The debate over Ukraine’s security guarantees reveals deep divisions. While experts agree U.S. backing is essential, doubts persist about whether Washington is ready to commit. For Ukrainians on the frontlines, promises without action remain difficult to trust.
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