Russia has once again raised tensions in Europe after three of its fighter jets entered Estonian airspace without permission. The incident was serious enough for Sky News to break into live programming, where presenter Gareth Barlow confirmed the violation and turned to military analyst Sean Bell for expert insight.
This comes just one day after Donald Trump, standing alongside UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer at Chequers, said that the threat of World War III had been “averted” and expressed disappointment that Vladimir Putin had refused to end the war in Ukraine.
According to Sean Bell, the jets involved were Foxhound supersonic aircraft highly advanced and central to Russia’s air force capabilities. He stressed that the incursion, which lasted around 12 minutes, was deliberate and “no mistake.” In his view, such an operation would have required direct approval from President Putin himself.
Bell argued that this was not just a technical breach but a calculated test of NATO’s response strategy. Unlike earlier drone incursions, this was manned, pre-planned, and symbolically targeted at a NATO member state. He compared it to the strict airspace boundaries of the Cold War, where even approaching a buffer zone triggered immediate warnings.
The analyst suggested Putin’s move could be designed to complicate Western military planning. NATO is already debating how best to support Ukraine, with discussions of a potential no-fly zone resurfacing in recent months. By forcing NATO to divert attention toward defending Baltic airspace, Moscow may be seeking to reduce Western momentum on Ukraine.
Ultimately, the message seems clear: Russia wants to remind the West that Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania remain vulnerable despite being NATO members. For Western leaders including Trump and Starmer this incident highlights the difficult balance between avoiding escalation and ensuring credible defence commitments.
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