Tensions across Eastern Europe have escalated after Poland invoked NATO’s Article 4 last week, following a wave of Russian drone incursions. Western officials believe that up to 24 Russian drones entered Polish airspace in the early hours of Wednesday, an act Warsaw says was deliberate. Moscow has denied these claims.
Under NATO rules, Article 4 allows member states to request consultations if they feel their security is threatened. This is different from Article 5, which declares that an attack on one NATO member is considered an attack on all.
Poland’s Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski recently explained what, in his view, could cross the line into Article 5 territory. Speaking with the Kyiv Independent, he said there are two possible scenarios:
- If Polish civilians are killed during such attacks.
- If Russia targets Rzeszów airport, the key logistics hub where military support for Ukraine flows from NATO allies.
Sikorski warned that Russia is “coming dangerously close” to this threshold, noting that some drones appeared to be headed in the airport’s direction. He stressed Poland’s responsibility to protect the hub from espionage, sabotage, and direct attacks.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has described the incident as bringing Europe “closer to open conflict than at any point since World War II.”
The situation has drawn strong international condemnation:
- UK Labour leader Keir Starmer called it an “egregious and unprecedented violation of Polish and NATO airspace.”
- Allied jets intercepted at least three drones, but analysts noted the interception rate was lower than Ukraine’s usual 80-85%.
Although no lives were lost, the drones damaged property inside Poland. Days later, another Russian drone spent nearly 50 minutes in Romanian airspace, again raising alarms before eventually leaving.
Adding to the tension, Sikorski told German media that NATO should consider shooting down Russian drones and missiles over Ukraine to protect allied territory. In response, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned that such actions would amount to “a war between NATO and Russia.”
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