Estonia’s defence minister Hanno Pevkur has warned that Moscow’s latest hybrid attacks are designed to weaken NATO’s resolve by shifting focus away from Ukraine and toward domestic defence concerns.
Experts caution that unless the alliance shows unity and credible deterrence, the risk of direct conflict with Russia will continue to rise.
Keir Giles of Chatham House explained that while Moscow does not necessarily seek war with NATO, its escalating provocations could make confrontation “look inevitable” if the West fails to act decisively. He noted that Europe still lacks the capacity to withstand large-scale drone attacks of the kind Ukraine faces daily.
Former Estonian deputy defence minister Lauri Almann added that only “resolve and strength” can deter Russia, since “Moscow respects strength, and that’s the message that has worked historically.”
Professor Mark Galeotti, author of Putin’s Wars, echoed this, stressing that Russia’s reckless decision-making creates unpredictable dangers. He argued that while President Putin often acts cautiously when faced with pushback, the absence of firm deterrence invites further risk.
Pevkur pointed to a recent wave of hybrid operations – from cyberattacks and airspace violations to interference in Moldova’s elections – as evidence of Moscow’s strategy. Estonia, which shares a 210-mile border with Russia, recently recorded three MiG-31 jets breaching its airspace. Italian pilots on patrol even reported being close enough to see Russian pilots wave.
“These incidents show Russia is testing how far it can go,” Pevkur said. “Whether it’s disrupting air traffic, undersea cables, or society itself, the pattern is clear.”
Both U.S. and Estonian officials have signaled that future violations must be met with strong responses, including the possible downing of intruding aircraft. Yet Pevkur emphasized the need for calm and careful deterrence, warning that overreaction could play into Moscow’s hands.
NATO’s support for Ukraine remains a key factor. Estonia and its allies are working to supply tactical reconnaissance drones, while Britain has pledged billions in aid and deployed nearly 900 troops in Estonia under Operation Cabrit. In parallel, Baltic defence companies are preparing a “Drone Wall” to shield the region from Russian UAV attacks.
As Pevkur concluded: “We value the society we have built and will not allow Russia to take it away. If Russia intends to start a war, the response will be heavy and immediate. But the priority is to stay united, stay calm, and stay prepared.”
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