A new proposal coming out of Washington is generating intense debate, with many analysts warning that the terms appear far more favorable to Vladimir Putin than to Ukraine. The Trump White House is pushing Kyiv to consider a controversial peace framework that could reshape security dynamics across Europe.
According to reports, the plan has been under discussion for several weeks. U.S. Secretary of State Marc Rubio and Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff have been working on the details, while White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the administration believes the terms should satisfy both Moscow and Kyiv. At the same time, Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, has announced he’ll leave his role in January raising questions about internal disagreements over the proposal.
President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged receiving the U.S. plan but emphasized that it reflects Washington’s priorities, not Ukraine’s. He noted that his government has laid out its own principles and that both sides will continue discussions to determine whether any agreement can genuinely protect Ukraine’s sovereignty and security.
Below are the five most significant outcomes the proposal could have if Ukraine and Russia were to accept it.
1. Ukraine would be blocked from joining NATO, and NATO’s future expansion would be halted
One of the most controversial elements is the provision preventing Ukraine from ever joining NATO. The plan would also bar any further enlargement of the alliance. Moscow has long argued that NATO expansion threatens its security, so this concession would give Russia a major geopolitical win something Democratic foreign-policy experts have warned against for years. It would also reverse decades of bipartisan support for NATO’s open-door policy.
2. The entire Donbas region would be handed over to Russia
The proposal reportedly formalizes Russia’s full control of the Donbas region, even though part of the territory is still held by Ukrainian forces. This area has been at the center of conflict since 2014. For many Ukrainians, officially giving up Donbas would be seen as legitimizing Russia’s long-running attempts to seize territory by force.
3. Ukraine’s military would face significant downsizing
Another provision calls for Ukraine’s armed forces to be reduced from roughly 880,000 personnel to 600,000. This contrasts sharply with Russia’s ongoing troop expansion, with the Kremlin aiming for 1.5 million active soldiers by late 2025. Security analysts note this would weaken Ukraine’s defensive capacity at a time when Russia is still mobilizing heavily.
4. Russia would be required to halt all attacks on Ukrainian territory
The White House describes this as a major concession required from Moscow. However, given Russia’s staggering battlefield losses and the growing strain on its population, critics argue that a pause in attacks could actually benefit the Kremlin by allowing it to regroup internally.
5. $100 billion in frozen Russian assets would be used for rebuilding Ukraine
One of the few components Ukrainian officials might view more positively is the redirection of frozen Russian assets toward reconstruction. After years of missile strikes on homes, hospitals, energy infrastructure, and farmland, Ukraine faces a massive rebuilding effort. Using seized Russian funds could help repair war-torn cities, restore electricity networks, and clear mines from rural areas.
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